Balanced Diplomacy is Key to Georgia’s Western Aspirations

This piece was authored by Joseph Jorjoliani and edited by Jack Myint.

In January 2017, a bipartisan delegation of three U.S. Senators, Lindsey Graham, Amy Klobuchar, and John McCain visited the Baltic states; Ukraine, Montenegro, and Georgia. Based on recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump with respect to Russia, there is lingering fear in the region that the United States would wane support towards ally nations amidst Russian interference. The delegation’s visit aimed to serve the purpose of convincing these countries that the United States will continue to be a bulwark against Russian aggression.

 

In the context of Georgia, the Senators’ meetings with Prime Minister Kvirikashvili and President Margvelashvili served to reaffirm United States’ foreign policy position in support of Georgia’s territorial integrity and underlined the heightened potential of Georgia’s future NATO membership. The senators visited Khurvaleti, an area on the Administrative Boundary Line with the breakaway Georgian territory of South Ossetia that has been controlled by Russian-supported separatist forces since 2008, a signal that Russian aggression will not be tolerated during Trump’s presidency and that the U.S. will stay committed to Georgia’s integration into NATO. However, said ‘commitment’ has its limitations in that both senators Graham and McCain, or anyone for that matter, cannot be entirely certain of President Trump’s foreign policy towards Georgia, in particular, or Eurasia, in general.

 

Developments in Georgian Politics

Besides meeting with high-level Georgian government officials, the senators also held talks with Georgian opposition leaders from the United National Movement (UNM) – a former governing party affiliated with ex-President Saakashvili, who currently resides in Ukraine due to criminal charges against him in Georgia, but still maintains a presence in Georgian politics.

The UNM recently disintegrated and only a fraction of the party stayed with Saakashvili. Among those who left the party are former Secretary of National Security Council, Giga Bokeria, former Chairman of the Parliament, David Bakradze and former Mayor of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava. They cited Saakashvili’s one-person rule and disinclination to democratically govern the party as one of the major reasons for leaving. “Saakashvili thinks that he is an idea, an uncontested leader… but uncontested leaders do not exist, it means that whatever the leader [Saakashvili] does is right. It is worth noting that Saakashvili did not think this way before but his rationale has changed overtime”, said Bokeria in an interview with the Georgian online magazine factcheck.ge.

 

Does UNM’s split from Saakashvili make it weaker or stronger?

Some say that distancing from Saakashvili could weaken the UNM’s representation in the West as Saakashvili still maintains firm connections in Washington. Needless to say, it was his personal efforts that brought President George W. Bush to Georgia in 2004 and further solidified Tbilisi’s ties to Washington. Despite Saakashvili’s close personal friendships with Washington heavyweights, there is an extent as to how long that would continue to translate to real political capital for Georgia. Saakashvili’s controversial rule after 2007, which includes surveillance on and imprisonment of political opponents, infringement on the rights of the media, and politically motivated antagonism towards Russia, which led the two countries to the verge of warfare, created doubts (both domestically and internationally) about his judgement and commitment to democratic governance in Georgia.

 

It was the reason why the Parliamentary Elections in 2012 led to a staggering electoral upset for his party, the UNM, and the Georgian Dream(GD) party under billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili rose to prominence. The recent October 2016 elections, in which GD won 115 out of 150 seats in parliament, further proved its public appeal and dominance in Georgia’s political landscape. This, coupled with Saakashvili’s relatively low public approval ratings, means that the UNM as it stands is no credible opposition to the GD government. Perhaps this new political fraction of UNM will be able to alter this after having distanced itself from Saakashvili.

 

Georgian Foreign Policy – a balancing act

The GD government has been criticized by UNM and several other political and civil fractions in Georgia for not having dynamic representation abroad. The critics fear that Georgia’s “inactivity” internationally might result in the country’s shift towards and increase reliance on its northern neighbor, Russia. However, the basis of this argument is not entirely well-founded.

It cannot be denied that the GD government has redefined Georgia’s relations with Russia and maintained good will with its strategic partner, United States. Unlike Saakashvili’s (UNM) government, personal politics no longer looms large in the US-Georgia relationship. As a matter of fact, it has become more strategic as Georgia intensified its participation in NATO missions in Afghanistan, ranking 4th after US, Italy and Germany in terms of military personnel and 1st among non-Nato member states in Resolute Support Mission, and through the American-Georgian consortium, began building one of the biggest ports in the Black Sea.

 

While Georgia remains a reliable partner in the South Caucasus to the United States, Georgian leadership realizes that Georgia’s foreign policy platform cannot be based on being purely anti-Russian. The accession of Georgia into EU and NATO will never come if it pits NATO member states against Russia on the frontline. Therefore, the Georgian government has softened its approach with separatist regions and restarted trade ties with Russia, although formal diplomatic relations have yet to emerge. It is important to see that Georgia has a very delicate balancing role to maintain in shaping the larger rhetoric that its membership to the EU and NATO will not create hostility between Russia and the West.

 

Joseph Jorjoliani is an non-resident expert at the Georgian Institute of Politics, a Tbilisi-based think tank. He previously served as the Young Ambassador of Georgia to the United States.